The KpLevel varies from 0 to 9. The higher the KpLevel, the farther locations (away from North) could the Northern lights be seen. If KpLevel is 3 or more, it could be seen at Anchorage too. The first important factor is clear sky night. Then, with reading the short term/hourly forecast of kpLevels for that night, you could almost predict seeing the lights.
I do not know of any night tours that provides pickup and drive out of the city at Anchorage. As the only option we could think of was heading to the Captian Cook's statue at Downtown which would be dark and thus perfect for the Northen Ligths viewing, we chose to sleep that night at Anchorage and try our luck at Fairbanks instead.
The nights could get pretty cold at Alaska.Being cold sensitive, The only way I could think of seeing the lights ( for a longer time if it appears) would be from behind a north facing window (that would shield me from the cold yet provides a great view). This is possible as we reserved a tour with "Northern lights Tour". Ben picked us up from our hotel around 1030 PM. He had 2 more customers whom we picked on our way. The van was warm and we had good company as we headed to Chandlar ranch. Located on a hill with Windows facing the north and a deck to the North, it was comparably deserted for that night (no other touring companies) so we had the place all for ourselves. We had a clear sky and KpLevel estimated for that night was 2. We could see a faint band by the time we reached the ranch. It was warmer in the cabin with hot coffee and water available. I comfortably sat in a chair as my infant slept on a couch next to me watching for the lights. My husband had his camera setup on the deck facing north visible from my window.
By 1130, the lights really started to come out. It slowly builds, spreading along the sky as if someone is painting those randomly. It started to become stronger. I rushed out of the cabin to the deck. we had a great 15 minutes show before it subsided. I checked the short term forecast on my cellphone and found out that the kpLevel is raising to 4 in the next 45 minutes. If anything were to happen, it would be in the next 45 then. I headed back into the cabin and relaxed on the chair watching the sky. As predicted after 30 minutes, the Aurora gradually rose. I ran out clapping my hands as the lights started to dance and displayed a few streaks of pink and lavender too! It was breath taking and quite a memorable one. It went on for another hour rising and subsiding a bit until 230 AM after which I checked that the kpLevel has fallen to 1.67. It forecasted to remain that way for the next 1 hour. We called it a great night and Ben dropped us all back at our hotels around 3 AM.
Points to remember - The best chance of Northern lights would be 2 weeks around the full moon of March every year.There is an 85% chance of seeing northern lights if you are in Fairbanks for 3 nights of watching during winter. If it is a clear night and kpLevel is predicted atleast 2 for the day at Fairbanks, that is your best bet to stay watch that night. You can check the short term forecast ( I have provided the web link below) that will give you the KpLevel predictions for the next 1 hour. This is highly resourceful about when to expect that night.
The tour we went with: http://www.alaskanorthernlights.net I found out about this tour from TripAdvisor, called Ben at the number on their website, and had an email confirmation. He also provided a car seat for our infant. The tour can be paid by cash only at this time.2 paying adults and the child travelled free.
Staying in the Chandalar ranch that has a hostel with a common kitchen and bunk beds is another option.However, We preferred to go with a different hotel accomodation in the city and opted for the "tour" that will include pickup from our hotel, watch the lights from the ranch while sitting inside the cabin, complimentary hot beverages and drop off to hotel around 3 AM.
Link for the short term/hourly forecast: http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora.htm
Link for the daily KpLevel forecast: http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/Alaska/
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